Saturday, November 17, 2007

If it were me....

So I got the question of where to put a chunk of money in today's market. I will tell you that I was in the same predicament about 2 weeks ago with my rollover from my cbh 401k. Here's the deal:
A lot of people will tell you to invest in the market more as it drops. I think that is a partial truth, as you can never predict accurately the end of the drop. It is a catch 22 in that the prominent folks who put it out there where the end is directly affect the end by influencing people about where the end is. So, if you tell people a stock will go up, it might just do that for the sole reason that people will buy it based on your advice (higher demand=higher price). That's why a lot of people out there can be right about price increases when they are the cause. That is why the SEC has some pretty clear guidelines on public advice and insider trading.
So here's my 2 cents. I took a chunk and invested it in two locations: Diamond Offshore and Target. Why? Because Target is awesome and we all know it and will continue to have shoppers due to its price advantage and friendlier atmosphere than Box-Mart. Diamond offshore books contracts for 10 yrs. providing drilling equipment to large oil companies at around $500,000/day. You do the math. This thing will continue to be a dividend-ATM for years and years. Plus oil will continue to get more and more expensive and harder to find. A boon just happened for the fine country of Brazil:
Brazil finds oil, moves to Beverly Hills
As a result, the deep-sea rigs that only a couple of companies (DO included) can supply will become hot commodities.
Outside of indiv. stocks, which I don't recommend if you do not know how to read a financial statement, don't follow business news, and don't care to, you should consider either specialty funds or exchange-traded-funds (a.k.a. ETFs). Look into iShares, which has a whole series of S&P matching funds based on the lesser S&P indexes. For example, they have growth, aggressive growth, small-cap, etc. based on the S&P categorizations. Let's face it, S&P has been doing this forever and everyone always compares their funds to the S&P. That has to tell you something. No one ever compares to the DJIA, as they are so skewed to manufacturing and American Classic stocks like GM, Ford, etc. (The hell with those guys).
In addition, look for funds that are based off of commodities, like metals, corn (in high demand due to spike in ethanol production), petroleum, and other industrials. In a recession, commodities continue to hold value, particularly gold, since they are tangible goods. I would say that since gold is at a record high, perhaps that should be shied away from. Sure it can go 10 $1000/oz., but it could also fall back to $250/oz, like it did in the early 80's shortly after its last record runnup.
So, depending on where you have your money, choose funds appropriately. If there is a price or load advantage to pick one run by the same company that holds your IRA, that could be a good bet. If not, look to low-cost fund providers like Vanguard, ETFs, and others like Fidelity.
Be cautious of expense ratios as those eat into returns right from the get-go and impact you long term.
Does that help? If you are looking for specific stocks, I like/hold these myself in various accounts and would recommend them:
DO - Diamond Offshore (oil rigs for deep sea exploration)
PCU - Souther Copper (as the name suggests it is mining)
TGT - who doesn't know Target????
BAC - banking without as much sub-prime impact as other large; solid div.s, solid earnings. Hey they are brutal, so you know they rake in the cash
INTC - in price war, but clearly beating up AMD. Look for them around $20 and then buy
XOM - We all know exxon mobil makes more money than anyone. Consistent dividend; oil production development that will yield volume results in the next year to year and a half will increase earnings.
SGP - pharma giant that produces consumer goods out the ying-yang. constant earner and dividend payer


As for ETFs: small cap or aggressive growth (there is overlap here). Because institutions can not invest large amounts of money in small-cap stocks, they are largely for small-time traders like us. Think about it: if a company has a million shares of stock at $25/shr., someone large cannot invest more than $12.5 million without becoming the largest shareholder and as a result literally run the company. Plus, if they buy large quantities of stock in a single run they will drive the price up ridiculously high. So small-caps go untouched because large funds are not in the business of owning companies nor investing small amounts of money. That's where we can play. Do your research, though. Once bitten twice shy for me. I would be cautious with this. It is like gambling, since a small company that folds up generally has no divisible assets left after creditors and you will get nothing.
Shit, that happened to me in 2001 with MCI (worldcom) and they were huge! I couldn't even get the share certificate to use as TP, since the cost to print it would exceed its actual value.

Hope this helps!
-K

P.S. I am not a certified advisor and have no expertise at all. If you listen to me you will lose money. Hope that covers me for my liability ;)!!

1 comment:

furiousBall said...

I like your idea for sure. For me, I like the armchair millionaire concept (there's a book). you split your money in thirds - 1/3 in large cap index fund, 1/3 small cap index fund, and 1/3 international index fund. just watch the maint cost. leave the money alone and rest easy knowing you're using a tried and true methodology of beating the market.